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The levels
The chain, link by link
On Monday 28 September the chain ran: Hormuz talks stall → Brent back above $100 → inflation expectations up → Fed hike odds up → real yields and the dollar up → metals down. Each link is checked here against where it stood that Monday.
Recent closes
| Close | Gold $/oz | vs $4,200 | Silver $/oz | vs $61.0 |
|---|
Dates that can move the levels
Thu 8 OctShanghai reopens after Golden Week, with a week of price moves to catch up on.
Wed 14 OctUS CPI: the next inflation test for silver at $61 and gold at $4,200.
After 19 OctChina Everbright Bank closes retail gold and silver margin trading; other Chinese banks are winding down too.
27–28 OctFOMC.
3 NovUS midterm elections.
Not on this board: GLD’s weekly RSI. Follow it in the technical chart panel of the ETF guide (SPDR Gold Shares, 1W). A new low for the year on the weekly RSI would be the reset the original note warned about.
Read the note: Silver’s Bad Monday →
Sources
- Levels: Silver’s Bad Monday: Oil, Rates and Leverage, DecisionFramework, 28 September 2026 (head-and-shoulders neckline, bull–bear line, measured target); silver’s $61.0 support from the Metal Ratios reading of 30 September 2026.
- Gold and silver spot closes: TradingView market data (TVC), stored nightly by the desk.
- Brent futures closes (ICE front month): TradingView market data, stored nightly by the desk.
- Fed hike odds for the 27–28 October meeting and the US Dollar Index (DXY) closes: logged on the Dollar Balance from investingLive reports and Investing.com historical data.
- US 10-year real yield (TIPS): Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, FRED series DFII10.
- China margin-trading exits: China Took the Leverage Out, Not the Gold, DecisionFramework.
Educational content to support your own research and decisions. Not financial advice.